France revises its ambitions down

The government has drawn a line under the "all TGV" and Pharaonic transportation policies, approving the orientations report Mobility 21 commission, presented Thursday, which favors the maintenance of the existing network, at the same time causing the discontent of number of "top elected officials."

The West and South branches of the high-speed line Rhine-Rhône or the Toulouse Narbone are pushed to a "distant horizon" after 2050. As the A26 motorway between Auxerre and Troyes or the A51 between Grenoble and Gap, among others.

The commission, headed by the deputy PS Calvados Philippe Duron, has lowered the ambitions of the state diagram contained in national transport infrastructure (Snit), height of 70 major projects for a budget of 245 billion euros over 25 years.

Transport Minister, Frédéric Cuvillier, welcomed this report puts an end to a "list Prévert (...) impossible to finance." He also welcomed the return of "some form of planning" and "the strategist state."

Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, approved this, and expects "to return to (his) account prior recommendations (the report)." It will unveil the July 9 great investment plan of government, which will have a transportation component.

The report leaves "all TGV" and major highway projects which France was accustomed (four high-speed lines are now under construction, between Tours and Bordeaux, Le Mans and Rennes, Metz and Strasbourg and bypassing Nimes and Montpellier). It focuses on priority the maintenance of the existing network.

Expected to light up on the Paris Stock Market

After a rebound of 3.6% in two days, the Paris Stock Market is expected to start the session slightly higher thanks to the easing of concerns about the reduction of support measures by the Fed and the risk of credit crunch China. Asian markets were buoyant this morning while rates in the Chinese money market continue to relax after their surge last week. The Nikkei 225 for Tokyo Stock Exchange index has ended with a gain of 2.96%, while Hong Kong gaining 1.15% and Shanghai hovering around the balance a little more than an hour of fence. Always in search of information about the health of the U.S. economy, the market monitor this afternoon Statistical expenses and revenues of U.S. households, considered one of the pillars of overseas growth. Also three Fed officials must intervene on Thursday. The financial sector should be monitored at the European Council in Brussels will focus particularly on the banking union. Finally, note that Italy is preparing to award up to 5 billion euros of bonds at 5 and 10 years. About 30 minutes of opening, the July futures contract on the CAC 40 index gained 4.5 points to 3726.

On the macroeconomic front, INSEE present before opening the results of the economic survey of French households for the month of June. They will be followed at 10:00 by the unemployment figures for the same month in Germany at 10:30 by the latest estimate of GDP in the UK in the first quarter, then by 11:00 the index of business climate, economic sentiment and confidence consumers in the euro area in June. Three U.S. statistics enliven the afternoon: the weekly jobless claims and the income and expenditure of households of May at 14:30, then the promises of home sales last month at 16.00.

On the values ​​front, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale will take the center stage after reached between the finance ministers of the European Union (EU) on the issue of loss-sharing agreement in the event of bank failure . The agreement will enter into force by 2018, includes a new rule that EU countries can impose losses on bondholders and depositors whose accounts exceed 100,000 euros in case of difficulties of establishment.

Vicat plans to acquire a majority stake in the Indian Jayajothi Sree Cement, a subsidiary of the holding company Shriram, valued at about $ 250 million, reports the Times of India, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Vinci and Predica insurance subsidiary of Crédit Agricole, are candidates to buy the block of 9.5% Aéroports de Paris sold by the state and the strategic investment fund, wrote agefi. The offers have to be filed Friday morning, the newspaper online.

Sanofi. The new project for the reorganization of R & D group will be presented to the Central Works Council on Tuesday plans 270 job cuts, including 63 in Toulouse, Les Echos. The initial project included 900 starts.

Among the analysts' reports, JPMorgan downgraded Solvay "neutral" from "underweight" and lowered its price target on Arkema from 72 to 68 euros. SG Cross Asset Research lowered its target on Wendel from 98 to 92 euros. Finally, HSBC cut its target price to Kering from 220 to 220 euros.

U.S. Stocks Today: The Dow Jones gained 0.73%, the Nasdaq is 0.83%

The New York Stock Exchange finished up 0.73% Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial winning 30 109.90 15,180.08 points.

The S & P-500, wider, took 12.34 points, or 0.76%, to 1639.07. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 28.58 point his side (0.83%) to 3452.13.

The paradox of monetary injections: when the U.S. economy gets better, the stock markets fear a correction

The Tokyo Stock Exchange has just landed (-5.15%) for the second time in a week and volatility is back on the equity markets. Investors and traders will have to learn to take advantage of these erratic movements. Above all, they will have to accommodate a scheduled dose reduction of liquidity injected by the U.S. Federal Reserve


The market situation is also more paradoxical: while the U.S. economy is regaining its full breath (consumer confidence at the highest in five years, expected improvement in the housing market by the end of the year), that companies perform well, the high points of U.S. stock indices are threatened by the expected withdrawal of the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Fed.


In the wake of Wall Street, it's all world stock markets fearing a mechanical correction inconsistent with the U.S. economic sense. To believe that weaning monetary measures (type "artificial") will be equally difficult to understand for investors, that was decisive quantitative easing in the market rally. Why such a movement of aversion? Because a monetary tightening, even progressive in the coming quarters, between rate hikes and cuts in purchases of fixed income promote a legitimate raising borrowing rates and reduce the attractiveness of that action. With a little more profitable sovereign bond yields, many investors would return to this asset class at the expense of equity markets, which until now no longer suffer from any competition in terms of performance. Moreover, even before any formal announcement on the "timing" of monetary tightening, the anticipation of such a scenario has led to the rise of the U.S. 10-year yields, now more than 2.1%, the highest point in more year.


In this uncertain environment, investors now tend to be rather "sellers" on the U.S. indices, in favor of Japanese indices (Nikkei) and European (CAC 40 and IBEX). Regarding the first, the early termination of higher incentive to profit taking. On the latter, on the contrary, the consolidation already visible in recent sessions that encourages some shopping cheap.

Another notable movement, a renewed interest in gold, which refranchit the symbolic threshold of 1 400 USD. The safe haven it find patterns in inflation rising U.S. interest rates combined with reflux hypothetical equity assets?

Americans are fleeing the stock markets

U.S. investors withdrew more money in April of investment funds consisting of equities (mutual funds, exchange traded funds) than any April during the last 17 years before fears of failure the European economy.

Equity funds had experienced withdrawals of U.S. $ 18.6 billion at April 25, according to data compiled by EPFR Global, a research firm in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Withdrawals in April are the largest since 1996, the first year that comparable data are available.

Investors have their money out of equity funds since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 which has lost 38% S & P 500.

In the U.S., liquidity continue to enter into bond funds while the main stock market index has more than doubled since hitting a low in 12 years in March 2009.

The mutual funds that invest in stocks, suffered withdrawals of U.S. $ 121 billion in the 12 months preceding March 31, according to Morningstar. Bond funds have in turn attracted a total sum of U.S. $ 191 billion aware of this same period.

INDICES: Paris lost 2.5% after the Chinese and U.S. indicators

The Paris Stock Exchange ended the session sharply lower on Friday after the release, the U.S., numbers of the confidence index from the University of Michigan and the announcement Friday morning, a slowdown economic growth in China.

An operator Paris stresses that the decline of French values ​​is explained by a combination of factors, besides the U.S. and Chinese figures, which have worried investors, citing renewed concerns about the euro area.

The CAC 40 fell 2.5% to 3189.09 points, down 3.9% on the week. The SBF 120 ended on a decline from 2.2% to 2,461.53 points, a weekly decline of 3.4%.

As for values, L'Oreal is the only action star of the index to finish up, taking 1.2% to 92.14 euros thanks to the publication of a revenue above expectations in the first quarter.

Another value to be published Thursday its quarterly sales, Carrefour lost 3.9% to 15.55 euros, as a result of negative comments from analysts.

Bank stocks have posted among the largest declines, BNP Paribas ended lower by 5.2% to 30.40 euros, while Credit Agricole fell 5.1% to 3.91 euros and Societe Generale, $ 5.8 % to 17.81 euros.

Veolia Environnement fell 3.9% to 10.77 euros, while Prime Minister of Gabon Raymond Ndong Sima asked about the renewal of the concession of water and electricity to the Power Corporation and Water of Gabon (SEEG), subsidiary of French group. The agreement between the Gabonese government to Veolia was signed in 1997 for 20 years.

Total closed down 1.7% to 36.42 euros. Its subsidiary, Total Exploration and Production Uganda said Friday forecast to invest at least $ 300 million in exploration and evaluation of its two exploration areas in Uganda this year.

PPR ended down 2.8% to 122.10 euros after placement of a bond issue of 500 million euros to 7 years with a coupon of 3.13%.

Monday, investors will focus, in France, the bond market, with issuance of short-term debt (BTF) and the launch of Eurex derivatives specialist and subsidiary of the German exchange group Deutsche Börse, the futures French government debt.

On the European side, the trade figures for the euro area will be announced in February and H & M will release its sales for the month of March.

United States, quarterly results from Citigroup, Charles Schwab and Mattel will be considered, as the index NAHB housing market for the month of April.

A-stock market crash is not alarmist, China is difficult to 2008, as luck

"I hope that the Chinese stock market crash!" This is Rogers on March 23 interview said.

Remark background day earlier (March 22), HSBC has just released March PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Preview value - 48.1, the end of the data for three consecutive months of gains, hitting a 4 months to the lowest and 5 located in a watershed in the fortunes of 50 below. Of course, seasoned Rogers did not forget to add that: "Because of this, I can buy shares of China".

The same day, Wang Yong, director of the SASAC, said yesterday that a number of central enterprises reflect the current 2008 financial crisis, the situation may be more severe. As early as last October, the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises in Wenzhou president Zhou German bluntly: the days of sad that more than 2008.

This raises a serious problem, the A-share will not collapse, China's economy will not be a hard landing or serious stagflation, the Chinese still have a chance like that poise in 2008, began to pay more feasting, peacefulness and prosperity? Frankly speaking, China has been difficult as lucky as in 2008, China's economic, financial, social and political positions of the resurrection "probability greater.

2008, China has been able to poise, more because of the fortunes. In early 2006, I once said that "the 2006 crisis and the Machine: The U.S. crisis suspense and China's reform and speed of a text warning: RMB appreciation and higher oil prices may lead to the crisis of the U.S. real estate bubble burst; in early 2007 to be" wary 2007: for 2008 brewing a new Asian financial crisis, "a text warning: If China bend to U.S. pressure to accelerate the appreciation of the yuan, China's stock market and property bubble will rapidly enlarge the Olympics before and after the hot money to focus on flight, China suffered after the Olympic crisis. The risk of these two crises at the same time, the key to see who one the first outbreak, the other survived.

In early 2008, the author in this year, China's worst-case forecast is: accelerated appreciation of yuan to expand the floating exchange rate range, or even a partial or even freely convertible; crazy stock market, property market bubble; China's central bank to curb the bubble on the grounds rapid monetary tightening; from top to bottom into a carnival atmosphere in the Olympic Games in June-July 2008, the USA and Israel suddenly launch a war against Iran, the soaring international oil prices, Chinese inflation; hostile to Iran, or Israel's refusal to participate in the Beijing Olympic Games with each other, the Chinese Olympic Games fails, international hot money took the opportunity to fully short. If this series the pawn scheduled Lazi Olympic crisis, the U.S. financial crisis, China will encounter poise.

However. Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, Chinese decision-making layer of the cool-headed, the collective research of the end of May early June, the monetary tightening has led to many companies shock; then in June to stop the appreciation of the renminbi; due to the earthquake disaster, China Olympic Games to do from time to maximum short bursting point was extinguished.

At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi and the international oil price rose to $ 147 a barrel, the U.S. benchmark interest rates pushed up to 5.25%, blew up the sub-prime and sub-prime financial derivatives bubble burst, the U.S. financial crisis broke out.

Financial crisis in the United States in 2008, actually gave a big opportunity in China, China's economy was saved is the rescue, but the direction should be a restructuring, high-tech incentives to invest in green recycling economy, and increase agricultural water conservancy construction; effective control prices; replenishment of the social security system and expanding domestic demand, China's economic development will greatly push forward, even beyond the United States.

Very much regret that, driven by domestic vested interests in some of the pro-Western elites "to save the United States is to save China." Induced, China launched an unprecedented vast investment in infrastructure, the central government's 4 trillion to drive a total of $ 18 trillion of investment, surging out of the thousands of local financing platform, the majority of the investment real estate, railways, highways and airports, the property bubble to be added to the extent that in 2010 people grievance, had a strong market regulation.

When the property market boom-bust in early 2011 when China's economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly compared to 2008. "Stock market crash of 2008 caused the national wealth of tens of thousands of billion loss, but only accumulated in the past have money left; However, the property bubble burst in 2011, not only will people the largest amount of wealth accumulation (millions of yuan) stuck in the property market and the expected income of nationals of the next decade or two deep sets of them. The rich and powerful vested interests of the 2009-2010 stock market rebound, the full size of the non-realizable and IPO financing cash, the A-share from bad to worse in 2011 after the imperative, A stocks and the U.S. out of the back of anti-market imperative.

Chinese bailout led to a resurgence of international commodity prices, such as copper is a new high, China's "world factory" was forced to digest; re-appreciation of the renminbi, the Chinese manufacturing driven a more difficult position; property prices rose pushing up wages; labor supply Lewis turning point super policymakers expected arrival, it pushed wage costs; a large number of corporate liquidity is stuck in the property market ...

On foreign policy, a large number of China's huge foreign reserve to buy U.S. bonds, European bonds, the only U.S. Treasuries peak of over 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, and even the bond of two rooms of up to $ 376 billion, accounting for foreign exchange reserves of more than 95%, very few gold reserves. essential oil and manufacturing resources.

However, to save the United States has not brought the United States smiling face on China. Establish cross-sectoral trade protection in the United States, mainly for the Chinese; the United States of TPP used to replace Chinese imports; the U.S. House and Senate passed the RMB exchange rate penalty case, only to be approved by the President. Even more outrageous is that Obama himself announced that the U.S. new military strategy, there is no polite way to China as its main strategic adversary.

At the same time, the United States absorbed the lessons of 2008 to take various measures to reduce dependence on Middle East oil, the proportion of imported oil has dropped from 14.9 percent in 2008 to 8.83% in 2010 (now lower); 2011 has been net exporter of refined oil. Vigorously develop the automotive industry, the dependence of imported oil increased to nearly 60 percent, the Middle East accounted for the share of imports to nearly 50%.

In addition, the United States used to buy a lot of dollar bonds, driving down the dollar interest rate, maintaining the security of the U.S. interest rate derivatives, digestion of the repair cost of U.S. financial

In short, the balance of the two countries has been tilted by the end of 2008, China's move to greatly inclined to the United States at one end. Now just the United States detonated the Iran war fuse, send a signal to launch all-out attack on China. This time, Rogers' stock market crash theory "has been the smell.

This time fortunes will be standing on the Chinese side? Unlikely, a country not even the anti-hero can not be protected, how could there fortunes? Of course, American militarism unscrupulously, its fortunes may not be enough!

For China, has basically defined the exploration of reform and opening up the outsole of the economic, social and political trends in the past 30 years has basically defined the set of resurrection, "the pattern. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing, because there may be pregnant with a big shuffle, and then the turn of the big upgrade.

Let us wait and see.