"I hope that the Chinese stock market crash!" This is Rogers on March 23 interview said.
Remark background day earlier (March 22), HSBC has just released March PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Preview value - 48.1, the end of the data for three consecutive months of gains, hitting a 4 months to the lowest and 5 located in a watershed in the fortunes of 50 below. Of course, seasoned Rogers did not forget to add that: "Because of this, I can buy shares of China".
The same day, Wang Yong, director of the SASAC, said yesterday that a number of central enterprises reflect the current 2008 financial crisis, the situation may be more severe. As early as last October, the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises in Wenzhou president Zhou German bluntly: the days of sad that more than 2008.
This raises a serious problem, the A-share will not collapse, China's economy will not be a hard landing or serious stagflation, the Chinese still have a chance like that poise in 2008, began to pay more feasting, peacefulness and prosperity? Frankly speaking, China has been difficult as lucky as in 2008, China's economic, financial, social and political positions of the resurrection "probability greater.
2008, China has been able to poise, more because of the fortunes. In early 2006, I once said that "the 2006 crisis and the Machine: The U.S. crisis suspense and China's reform and speed of a text warning: RMB appreciation and higher oil prices may lead to the crisis of the U.S. real estate bubble burst; in early 2007 to be" wary 2007: for 2008 brewing a new Asian financial crisis, "a text warning: If China bend to U.S. pressure to accelerate the appreciation of the yuan, China's stock market and property bubble will rapidly enlarge the Olympics before and after the hot money to focus on flight, China suffered after the Olympic crisis. The risk of these two crises at the same time, the key to see who one the first outbreak, the other survived.
In early 2008, the author in this year, China's worst-case forecast is: accelerated appreciation of yuan to expand the floating exchange rate range, or even a partial or even freely convertible; crazy stock market, property market bubble; China's central bank to curb the bubble on the grounds rapid monetary tightening; from top to bottom into a carnival atmosphere in the Olympic Games in June-July 2008, the USA and Israel suddenly launch a war against Iran, the soaring international oil prices, Chinese inflation; hostile to Iran, or Israel's refusal to participate in the Beijing Olympic Games with each other, the Chinese Olympic Games fails, international hot money took the opportunity to fully short. If this series the pawn scheduled Lazi Olympic crisis, the U.S. financial crisis, China will encounter poise.
However. Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, Chinese decision-making layer of the cool-headed, the collective research of the end of May early June, the monetary tightening has led to many companies shock; then in June to stop the appreciation of the renminbi; due to the earthquake disaster, China Olympic Games to do from time to maximum short bursting point was extinguished.
At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi and the international oil price rose to $ 147 a barrel, the U.S. benchmark interest rates pushed up to 5.25%, blew up the sub-prime and sub-prime financial derivatives bubble burst, the U.S. financial crisis broke out.
Financial crisis in the United States in 2008, actually gave a big opportunity in China, China's economy was saved is the rescue, but the direction should be a restructuring, high-tech incentives to invest in green recycling economy, and increase agricultural water conservancy construction; effective control prices; replenishment of the social security system and expanding domestic demand, China's economic development will greatly push forward, even beyond the United States.
Very much regret that, driven by domestic vested interests in some of the pro-Western elites "to save the United States is to save China." Induced, China launched an unprecedented vast investment in infrastructure, the central government's 4 trillion to drive a total of $ 18 trillion of investment, surging out of the thousands of local financing platform, the majority of the investment real estate, railways, highways and airports, the property bubble to be added to the extent that in 2010 people grievance, had a strong market regulation.
When the property market boom-bust in early 2011 when China's economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly compared to 2008. "Stock market crash of 2008 caused the national wealth of tens of thousands of billion loss, but only accumulated in the past have money left; However, the property bubble burst in 2011, not only will people the largest amount of wealth accumulation (millions of yuan) stuck in the property market and the expected income of nationals of the next decade or two deep sets of them. The rich and powerful vested interests of the 2009-2010 stock market rebound, the full size of the non-realizable and IPO financing cash, the A-share from bad to worse in 2011 after the imperative, A stocks and the U.S. out of the back of anti-market imperative.
Chinese bailout led to a resurgence of international commodity prices, such as copper is a new high, China's "world factory" was forced to digest; re-appreciation of the renminbi, the Chinese manufacturing driven a more difficult position; property prices rose pushing up wages; labor supply Lewis turning point super policymakers expected arrival, it pushed wage costs; a large number of corporate liquidity is stuck in the property market ...
On foreign policy, a large number of China's huge foreign reserve to buy U.S. bonds, European bonds, the only U.S. Treasuries peak of over 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, and even the bond of two rooms of up to $ 376 billion, accounting for foreign exchange reserves of more than 95%, very few gold reserves. essential oil and manufacturing resources.
However, to save the United States has not brought the United States smiling face on China. Establish cross-sectoral trade protection in the United States, mainly for the Chinese; the United States of TPP used to replace Chinese imports; the U.S. House and Senate passed the RMB exchange rate penalty case, only to be approved by the President. Even more outrageous is that Obama himself announced that the U.S. new military strategy, there is no polite way to China as its main strategic adversary.
At the same time, the United States absorbed the lessons of 2008 to take various measures to reduce dependence on Middle East oil, the proportion of imported oil has dropped from 14.9 percent in 2008 to 8.83% in 2010 (now lower); 2011 has been net exporter of refined oil. Vigorously develop the automotive industry, the dependence of imported oil increased to nearly 60 percent, the Middle East accounted for the share of imports to nearly 50%.
In addition, the United States used to buy a lot of dollar bonds, driving down the dollar interest rate, maintaining the security of the U.S. interest rate derivatives, digestion of the repair cost of U.S. financial
In short, the balance of the two countries has been tilted by the end of 2008, China's move to greatly inclined to the United States at one end. Now just the United States detonated the Iran war fuse, send a signal to launch all-out attack on China. This time, Rogers' stock market crash theory "has been the smell.
This time fortunes will be standing on the Chinese side? Unlikely, a country not even the anti-hero can not be protected, how could there fortunes? Of course, American militarism unscrupulously, its fortunes may not be enough!
For China, has basically defined the exploration of reform and opening up the outsole of the economic, social and political trends in the past 30 years has basically defined the set of resurrection, "the pattern. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing, because there may be pregnant with a big shuffle, and then the turn of the big upgrade.
Let us wait and see.
Remark background day earlier (March 22), HSBC has just released March PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) Preview value - 48.1, the end of the data for three consecutive months of gains, hitting a 4 months to the lowest and 5 located in a watershed in the fortunes of 50 below. Of course, seasoned Rogers did not forget to add that: "Because of this, I can buy shares of China".
The same day, Wang Yong, director of the SASAC, said yesterday that a number of central enterprises reflect the current 2008 financial crisis, the situation may be more severe. As early as last October, the Association of Small and Medium Enterprises in Wenzhou president Zhou German bluntly: the days of sad that more than 2008.
This raises a serious problem, the A-share will not collapse, China's economy will not be a hard landing or serious stagflation, the Chinese still have a chance like that poise in 2008, began to pay more feasting, peacefulness and prosperity? Frankly speaking, China has been difficult as lucky as in 2008, China's economic, financial, social and political positions of the resurrection "probability greater.
2008, China has been able to poise, more because of the fortunes. In early 2006, I once said that "the 2006 crisis and the Machine: The U.S. crisis suspense and China's reform and speed of a text warning: RMB appreciation and higher oil prices may lead to the crisis of the U.S. real estate bubble burst; in early 2007 to be" wary 2007: for 2008 brewing a new Asian financial crisis, "a text warning: If China bend to U.S. pressure to accelerate the appreciation of the yuan, China's stock market and property bubble will rapidly enlarge the Olympics before and after the hot money to focus on flight, China suffered after the Olympic crisis. The risk of these two crises at the same time, the key to see who one the first outbreak, the other survived.
In early 2008, the author in this year, China's worst-case forecast is: accelerated appreciation of yuan to expand the floating exchange rate range, or even a partial or even freely convertible; crazy stock market, property market bubble; China's central bank to curb the bubble on the grounds rapid monetary tightening; from top to bottom into a carnival atmosphere in the Olympic Games in June-July 2008, the USA and Israel suddenly launch a war against Iran, the soaring international oil prices, Chinese inflation; hostile to Iran, or Israel's refusal to participate in the Beijing Olympic Games with each other, the Chinese Olympic Games fails, international hot money took the opportunity to fully short. If this series the pawn scheduled Lazi Olympic crisis, the U.S. financial crisis, China will encounter poise.
However. Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, Chinese decision-making layer of the cool-headed, the collective research of the end of May early June, the monetary tightening has led to many companies shock; then in June to stop the appreciation of the renminbi; due to the earthquake disaster, China Olympic Games to do from time to maximum short bursting point was extinguished.
At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi and the international oil price rose to $ 147 a barrel, the U.S. benchmark interest rates pushed up to 5.25%, blew up the sub-prime and sub-prime financial derivatives bubble burst, the U.S. financial crisis broke out.
Financial crisis in the United States in 2008, actually gave a big opportunity in China, China's economy was saved is the rescue, but the direction should be a restructuring, high-tech incentives to invest in green recycling economy, and increase agricultural water conservancy construction; effective control prices; replenishment of the social security system and expanding domestic demand, China's economic development will greatly push forward, even beyond the United States.
Very much regret that, driven by domestic vested interests in some of the pro-Western elites "to save the United States is to save China." Induced, China launched an unprecedented vast investment in infrastructure, the central government's 4 trillion to drive a total of $ 18 trillion of investment, surging out of the thousands of local financing platform, the majority of the investment real estate, railways, highways and airports, the property bubble to be added to the extent that in 2010 people grievance, had a strong market regulation.
When the property market boom-bust in early 2011 when China's economic fundamentals have deteriorated significantly compared to 2008. "Stock market crash of 2008 caused the national wealth of tens of thousands of billion loss, but only accumulated in the past have money left; However, the property bubble burst in 2011, not only will people the largest amount of wealth accumulation (millions of yuan) stuck in the property market and the expected income of nationals of the next decade or two deep sets of them. The rich and powerful vested interests of the 2009-2010 stock market rebound, the full size of the non-realizable and IPO financing cash, the A-share from bad to worse in 2011 after the imperative, A stocks and the U.S. out of the back of anti-market imperative.
Chinese bailout led to a resurgence of international commodity prices, such as copper is a new high, China's "world factory" was forced to digest; re-appreciation of the renminbi, the Chinese manufacturing driven a more difficult position; property prices rose pushing up wages; labor supply Lewis turning point super policymakers expected arrival, it pushed wage costs; a large number of corporate liquidity is stuck in the property market ...
On foreign policy, a large number of China's huge foreign reserve to buy U.S. bonds, European bonds, the only U.S. Treasuries peak of over 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, and even the bond of two rooms of up to $ 376 billion, accounting for foreign exchange reserves of more than 95%, very few gold reserves. essential oil and manufacturing resources.
However, to save the United States has not brought the United States smiling face on China. Establish cross-sectoral trade protection in the United States, mainly for the Chinese; the United States of TPP used to replace Chinese imports; the U.S. House and Senate passed the RMB exchange rate penalty case, only to be approved by the President. Even more outrageous is that Obama himself announced that the U.S. new military strategy, there is no polite way to China as its main strategic adversary.
At the same time, the United States absorbed the lessons of 2008 to take various measures to reduce dependence on Middle East oil, the proportion of imported oil has dropped from 14.9 percent in 2008 to 8.83% in 2010 (now lower); 2011 has been net exporter of refined oil. Vigorously develop the automotive industry, the dependence of imported oil increased to nearly 60 percent, the Middle East accounted for the share of imports to nearly 50%.
In addition, the United States used to buy a lot of dollar bonds, driving down the dollar interest rate, maintaining the security of the U.S. interest rate derivatives, digestion of the repair cost of U.S. financial
In short, the balance of the two countries has been tilted by the end of 2008, China's move to greatly inclined to the United States at one end. Now just the United States detonated the Iran war fuse, send a signal to launch all-out attack on China. This time, Rogers' stock market crash theory "has been the smell.
This time fortunes will be standing on the Chinese side? Unlikely, a country not even the anti-hero can not be protected, how could there fortunes? Of course, American militarism unscrupulously, its fortunes may not be enough!
For China, has basically defined the exploration of reform and opening up the outsole of the economic, social and political trends in the past 30 years has basically defined the set of resurrection, "the pattern. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing, because there may be pregnant with a big shuffle, and then the turn of the big upgrade.
Let us wait and see.
