Emerging markets have entered the U.S. rate hike cycle will do this year

From a global perspective, the financial crisis, in response to inflationary pressures, Australia, Norway, India, Brazil and other emerging market economies have entered the interest rate cycle. At the same time, the United States, European Union, Japan and other developed economies, the central bank to maintain a low interest rate policy remains unchanged. European and American developed countries to raise interest rates in 2010 will be of particular concern to market participants, a variety of suspicions spread in the market. I think the U.S. will not raise interest rates this year, there are four reasons.

 First, the U.S. is still in the interest rate cut cycle. The United States is still in the cut cycle, this cycle is estimated to remain 2-3 years. In 2001, after the Internet bubble burst, the U.S. government to impose economic stimulus plan, the Fed cut rates a series of policy interest rates since 2004, so the rate hike cycle is 3 years. In 2007 the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed cut interest rates again, to the benchmark interest rate in 2008 dropped to almost zero. Subprime mortgage crisis caused by the financial tsunami is much greater than the harm of the Internet bubble, the interest rate reduced to almost zero, therefore, this cycle of raising interest rates at least 3 years, we believe that, after 2011.