2011年4月23日星期六

Weekly Summary: Fundamental overshadowed by the Quarterly

Paris (0.43%) ended the session exactly at opening (4.021.9 Pts) and aligns a third consecutive session for a weekly gain of 1.2%.
Among the big winners of the week, there are luxury goods (LVMH wins +7.3%) and automotive (Faurecia +13.5%, +7% Michelin, Peugeot and Valeo 6.5%, Saint Gobain ( windshield) +4.9%).Losers side, with Natixis banking stocks (-5.7%), Credit Agricole (-5.5%), General Sté (-4.7%), Dexia (-4.1%).This diagram recall precisely that which prevailed last fall with exactly the same themes and carry the same "forgotten" portfolio managers.
What was also very quickly "forgotten" is placed on negative watch the sovereign debt of the United States by "S & P".
Jean Claude Trichet said Thursday is "confidence in the ability of USA to restore their fiscal situation" ... but he has mentioned any of the tracks that would be achieved, let alone run.
He also stressed that "some countries have lagged in the implementation of measures to restore market confidence" (a thinly veiled way to describe the U.S. that print money instead to balance their accounts ).
In Europe, the average increase amounted to 0.5% on Thursday in the wake of the DAX-30 gained 0.6% and that of Milan (1.45%).London consolidating of -0.15% and -0.25% in Amsterdam in the wake of the telephone operator KPN (-8%).
The CAC 40 was opened on Thursday a second "gap" while the subsequent avalanche of quarterly profits "exceed the estimates" (Intel, Apple, UTX, VM-Ware) upstaged a further decline in the Ifo climate index Business in Germany (to 110.4 in April against 111.1 in March).No "bad news" does not seem to affect markets: in mid-session, the Dow Jones (+0.35%) continued to attempt to register a score 12.500Pts and the "S & P" (+0.5%) to trace its zenith 1.340Pts.The most striking is the index "VIX" that the floor tu annual 14.5 Pts like in mid-February or during the summer of 2007 (or late October when the Dow peaked towards 14.700Pts).The confidence of the managers reached new highs last 48 hours ... as if the U.S. budget problems did not exist and as if the Fed could continue forever to print the hundreds of billions of dollars that are saving the country from bankruptcy for 2 years.
Wall Street is totally uninterested in the plunge of the index 'Philly Fed' to 18.5, against 43.4 in March (and 37 expected) or 1% decline in property prices.
In Europe, no one seems to care about the voltage levels at 2 years Greek (22.2%) and Portuguese (11% ... 10% more than the day before).Such levels, however, invite to fear imminent restructuring of the Greek debt and losses for the banking sector (BNP-Paribas takes 2.05%, Dexia +1.6%) and insurance (AXA gained 1.2%).
Currency traders also ignore the problem of sovereign debt peripheral countries since the euro has set a new annual record at $ 1.4650 (1.4580 cec evening).
The dollar benefit only marginally from the slight decline in enrollment in weekly unemployment benefits: they fell from 13,000 to $ 403,000 (385,000 anticipated), according to the Labor Department.The four-week moving average rose 2,250 to 399,000 and the total number of persons receiving regular benefits has remained stable at 3.69 million.
So the micro-economic aspects that dominate the debates in this period of "quarterly" on the CAC, Schneider Electric, ranked in the forefront (+2.7% to 117.3 euros), following the announcement of an organic growth of 11.8% in the first quarter and confirmed its full-year, starting with organic growth of 6% to 9% this year.Peugeot is also in the head with up to 2.6% Saint Gobain (+2.4%) and Lafarge (+1.6%) which enjoys a favorable recommendation from Goldman Sachs.
Alstom rose on his side of 1% after signing with Shanghai Electric Group a letter of intent that includes the creation of a 50/50 joint venture to consolidate the activities of both partners in the field of boilers for power plants.
CAC Hors, Wendel (+3.2%) and Edenred (+3.3%) are in the vanguard ... Conversely, Publicis lost 3.6% to 37.48 euros after posting revenue up 10.7% for the first quarter, with organic growth of 6.5%, and expressed a 'guarded optimism' for the rest of the year.
Accor also disappoints (-4% to 30.2 euros), after the publication of a turnover of 1.35 billion euros for the first quarter 2011, up 5.8% as reported and 5.5% on a comparable basis.
CAC Hors Sodexo (-1.6%) and Beneteau (-3.95%) are also severely punished after announcing their respective quarterly performance below estimates.

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