2010年10月13日星期三

There is no winner in currency war

The rich country group and the organization tolerates the global biggest economy to provoke the currency war, will force more countries to take the unilateral action, public or hiding way depreciation standard currency, this will cause at the global foreign exchange more and more legal tender to become the abandoned baby, will be unable to obtain haven the fund to transfer seeks help from the non-monetary assets, will cause in the gold price straight line to leap up, the inflation will intensify, fixed asset froth.   
On the other hand, the currency fights also the evolution is the interest rate war, this will cause the global arbitrage transaction once again actively, the hot money to attack these honest codes of honor the country, its result will be, the 1990s's region finance vibration had the possibility to reappear in the world, then spread gradually for the 1930s and in 2008 the such global economic crisis.
In the 1930s, some great nations gave up the gold standard suddenly, the additional painting paper money, caused the world to fall into long-term “the great depression”.   
Nihon Keizai Shimbun comments said that a country currency devaluation can cause the object country currency relative revaluation. If a country lets the domestic currency depreciation, then other countries will imitate in abundance, the result will intensify does not trust the mood, will cause all quarters to be injured.
The currency fights the essence is the trade war, the currency value is cheaply advantageous to the export, but the standard currency revalues favors the import, the exchange rate has become after the customs duty another may start “the trade protectionism” comprehensively. The US impels the operation currency bill, in fact is implements the punitive customs duty surfacing path for it, gathers the non-conventional counter-subsidy tax for it to seek for the legal basis. Once the currency fights the essence to transform as the public trade war, the trade protectionism even more will fall into already the unbalanced global economic a bigger imbalance, the global economic which in the financial crisis goes out from 2008 will have falls into the bleak danger once more, even has the eruption “the entity” war's danger.
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