2010年11月17日星期三

MARKETS: THE EURO stood still AFTER ZEW

For the euro, the high point of $ 1.43 reached on November 4 decidedly away at high speed. Around 12:30, the single European currency remained neutral (+0.04%) to 1.3585 dollar. If the European sovereign concerns are increasingly urgent, an economic index, German ZEW, has exceeded expectations this morning.
From a graphical perspective, the euro seems to have confirmed the crossing down the 50-day moving average located at 1.3622. This raised the analysts Danish bank Jyske Bank this morning, "while the crisis continues to affect sovereign debt markets." In a month, the euro see the euro / dollar at 1.33.
Analysts point out yesterday that Eurostat has revised the budget deficit of Greece for 2009 from 13.6 to 15.4% of GDP, debt to GDP ratio from 115 to 126.8%. To make matters worse, the Greek Finance Minister announced that this year the deficit could reach 9.4% of GDP instead of 7.8% previously announced. "This means that new austerity measures will be needed to fulfill the commitments with the EU and the IMF," Jyske analysis, which stresses that the market had little reaction to the news.
However, "if the Irish crisis worsened again or if the debt problems spread to other peripheral states of the European Union [the infamous PIGS], the risk that the pressure on the euro would strengthen considerably in coming weeks, "said Jyske.
Pictet & Cie, analysts Changes back on the G20 at the end of last week and his "very mixed results in terms of exchange rates, each defending his own steak!". It is now the Irish question should focus attention, "while suggesting that the situation in Ireland is critical," the Swiss private bank.
Fortunately, good news from Germany has been heartening to hear of traders: the ZEW German economic sentiment is ironed in positive territory in November, 1.8 percentage points -7.2 points against the previous month and above consensus - 7 points! The indicator remains well below its historical average of 26.9 points.
In addition, the annual inflation in the euro zone was 1.9% in October 2010, against 1.8% in September, according to recent Eurostat figures confirm the flash estimate. A year ago, it was -0.1%. The monthly inflation rate was 0.4% in October 2010.
This afternoon, the market will take note of the industrial production of the United States for October (forecast: 0.3%; preceding -0.2%) and utilization of production capacity (forecast: 74 , 9% Previous: 74.7%). 

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