2011年5月8日星期日

Weekly Summary: CAC40 to -1.2%, 1st bubble material explodes


After a suspense that lasted over five hours, the CAC 40 has largely moved away from the threshold a bit "delicate" of 4. 010Pts but closed below the 4.070Pts (zenith of April 8).
The course is CAC40 Friday again very telling of how functions the algorithms that drive the evolution of indices: linear increase of between 50 Points 2:31 p.m. ET 15H00, practically without transactions ... and fluctuations in an unusually narrow range of just 0.2% in amplitude during the 2 hours (until its closure).
Everything happens as if "trading robots" were scheduled to propel the index to a very specific goal and then working to eliminate the volatility when it is reached (examples abound since April 2009). Within the SBF-120, the week was marked by the distribution of many dividends (including Vivendi, Bouygues and Technip) which leads to a relative number of folds. But the quarterly also played a decisive role for Alstom (-5.55%), General Sté (-4.1%), CGG Veritas (-4.5%). Total (-3.75%) was the victim of relapse of heavy oil rather than its record profits (but in line with expectations). Side increases, Arkema (+5.5%) benefited from the quadrupling of its results, Sanofi-Aventis climbs +3.4% and +3% Air-France/KLM (everything was played on Friday). Good figures released Wednesday argued BNP-Paribas (+1.9%) and Pernod Ricard (+1.7%).
The cause of the "peak" high "this Friday at mid-afternoon is obvious to all operators: the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected (from reading the latest weekly figures).
The Labour Department lists 244,000 new jobs instead of 190,000 early ... but the total has been conveniently "inflated" by the 65,000 new hires made by McDonald's earlier this month (they are not what are called "permanent jobs").
The real "something" comes from the upward revision of the figure in February (46,000) and more modestly to the March (5000).
It was indeed a pretext to justify purchases on the cheap after 3 sessions of consolidation beyond the opposite view on the rise, here is another illustration of the phenomenon of disappearance of buyers when the market declines and sellers when indices rise.
Wall Street held its gains you it up close? Unlike European markets that have strict "no let go" from their highs of mid-afternoon, the U.S. indices marking time: the Dow Jones returns of +1.4% to +0.6% , Nasdaq +1.6% to +0.9% and the S & P of 1.45% to 0.65%.
Wall Street largely escaped the contagion of commodity markets that have suffered a mini-crash Thursday to see a crash on the short week with a barrel of oil lost 12% in less than 24 hours ($ 94.5 to Low this morning, tonight ... $ 101.5 6% more volatility intraday) and an ounce of silver makes the plunge (-30%) between Monday and $ 49.5 $ 34.3 yesterday Evening on the WWC ($ 36 this Friday).
Relapse of "WTI" $ 100 in contact with the specter of a gallon of gasoline at $ 5 in the USA by the "driving season" (the recent crossing of the $ 4 mark for economists has been a serious warning on the purchasing power of households).
Despite the relapse under $ 99 a barrel this evening (-13% on the week, after an "air pocket" in the morning to -16%), the dollar under the curiously retrograde 1.46 after climbing to the E Beyond 1.445 E to 15H.
Peugeot and Renault gained 2.8% 2.45% Vallourec and Technip +3.7% and +3.3%, finally Air-France/KLM s'impoe as leader of the SBF-120 with 4%. Nice rebound Carrefour (+1.55%), Natixis (+2.5%) and Safran (2.95%). The quarterly continue to be monitored closely by investors penalize heavily those of Alcatel-Lucent (although maintaining the 2011 target but sales disappoint a little).
The title plunges 1.9% to 4.208 E (a lesser evil because he showed up this morning at 6% 4E), while the telecoms equipment maker posted a net loss of EUR 10 million during its first quarter 2011.
The second title in decline in the CAC 40 was -1.15% with Accor.

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